Interest rates remain at 0.5% but for how much longer?

Page last updated Thursday, 05 August 2010

006-bank-of-englandThe Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted once more to keep interest rates at 0.5%.

The cost of borrowing has been at a record low for the past 18 months and although inflation is a real threat many economists do not expect the Bank of England to rush into an immediate rate rise.

Increasing interest rates is one tool that can be used to combat inflation but earlier reports suggest that the committee do not see high inflation as a serious concern.

Last year, £200bn was injected into the economy through quantitative easing in an attempt to boost economic growth. Although this remains on hold the option to pump more in still remains open to the members.

Quantitative Easing explained

By reducing interest rates, the Bank of England has been trying to raise the amount of lending and increase activity in the economy indirectly because lower interest rates tend to encourage people to spend more and not save.

Individuals, particularly those with tracker mortgages, end up spending less each month on their repayments which releases more disposable income to spend which in turn helps the economy.

However if this doesn't have the desired effect and interest rates can go no lower, an option is for Central banks, such as the Bank of England, to pump more money into the economy by a process known as quantitative easing.

This is where Central Banks buy up assets such as government and corporate bonds held by the commercial banks thereby injecting money back into banking world. The theory is that by flooding the financial system with money in this way, the increase in the banks' money supply will lead to an increase in confidence, an increased volume of lending and a stimulation of growth.

It is believed that by easing the pressure on banks they will have extra capital and with interest rates now as low as they are likely to go, quantitative easing should hopefully force down longer term rates, which are the rates that companies and individuals borrow at, as well.

How do we know if it has worked?

The first indications will be an upturn in credit growth and businesses will find it easier to get credit. This should then help stimulate the economy and help push inflation levels back to the Bank of England's target figure of 2%, thus staving off the threat of deflation.

How long could it take?

No one knows, not even Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England.

Has it ever worked before?

No.

DebtWizard Comment

Quantitative easing could cause inflation over the long term which to combat could result in higher interest rates having to be introduced. The amount the government has so far put into the economy under this scheme currently stands at £200 billion. It is still under review.

There is a risk of doing too little instead of too much in what is seen as a very fragile economy, so perhaps this decision to hold interest rates has to be welcome as no one really knows when the full effect of quantitative easing will be truly felt. 

Some analysts argue that the historic low interest rate of half a per cent has not helped the economy while others claim it is keeping it going. Savers feel they are being punished for being prudent with their money. You cannot please everyone!

We can all be arm chair economists and easily criticise after the event. I believe the Government will do their best to get the economy going and we need support from all parties to ensure the economy is turned around and grows as quick as possible.


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Cyril Thursday, 19 August 2010

"Interest rates remain at 0.5% but for how much longer?"

Several years yet. Talk is on the way of more QE (QEII?). This won't work.

The Fed has given up on QE...

"To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1"

This is just to look like it is doing "something"..

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20100810a.htm

Job losses continue to increase


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